On November 16, 2025, the domestic organic silicon market ushered in a new round of price adjustments, with the average price of dimethyl cyclic siloxane (DMC) exceeding 12500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1000 yuan/ton from the previous week, an increase of 8.7%. The price rebound this time is due to the implementation of the industry's proactive production reduction strategy - since early November, leading companies such as Hesheng Silicon Industry and Dongyue Silicon Materials have jointly announced a 30% reduction in production and adopted measures to close down and limit orders, directly leading to a tight supply of spot goods in the market. According to data from Zhuochuang Information, industry inventory has been declining for three consecutive weeks, and social inventory has decreased by about 12% compared to the beginning of the month, providing strong support for price increases.


Improvement in supply and demand pattern, increased expectations for profit recovery
According to a research report by Guosen Securities, the domestic consumption of organic silicon intermediates reached 1.5128 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.66%. However, due to the downturn in the real estate industry and the repeated impact of the epidemic, industry profits have continued to be under pressure since 2022. The current production reduction action aims to repair the supply-demand balance by reducing supply. If the subsequent production reduction efforts are maintained, the industry's average profit is expected to turn positive. It is worth noting that the "anti involution" campaign in the photovoltaic field is being promoted simultaneously, with plans to form a consortium to eliminate outdated production capacity, further strengthening the market's expectations for industrial silicon price recovery and providing bottom support for the cost side of organic silicon.


Short term game intensifies, long-term demand resilience still exists
Despite the obvious upward trend in prices, there is still uncertainty about the pace of short-term demand recovery. The recovery of orders in downstream areas such as silicone rubber and silicone rubber products is slow, and the operating rate of enterprises is only maintained at around 60%. Price transmission relies on substantial volume increase in terminal orders. Market analysts believe that the current market is in a game stage between "strong expectations" and "weak reality". If the demand in fields such as construction and new energy cannot be effectively met, the foundation for price increases will be put to the test. However, in the long run, the application of organosilicon in strategic emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic energy storage, and embodied intelligent robots continues to expand, and demand resilience is still worth looking forward to.


Industry dynamics tracking: meetings of actual controllers may become key nodes
It is reported that the industry control meeting on November 18th will further discuss the implementation details of the "anti involution" action and production reduction strategy. At the same time, the upstream industrial silicon production may further shrink due to the impact of the southwest dry season, coupled with the cost transmission effect in the photovoltaic field, and the price trend of organic silicon still needs to be closely monitored.