Reported from Hangzhou on September 12, 2025
Since September, the price of
organic silicon intermediate DMC has fluctuated sharply in the range of 10700-12300 yuan/ton, up 22% from the beginning of the year. Behind this price game is a profound change in the supply and demand pattern of the industry and the deep involvement of financial capital.
Cost driven: The 'Butterfly Effect' of Industrial Silicon Futures
As the main raw material of DMC, the fluctuation of industrial silicon prices directly affects the cost of organosilicon. In June 2025, the main contract for industrial silicon futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange saw a daily increase of 9%, driving DMC prices to rise synchronously. But unlike before, this price increase did not trigger panic stocking downstream.
Nowadays, customers have learned 'futures hedging', "revealed the head of a certain organic silicon trader. Top companies transfer the risk of raw material cost fluctuations to the financial market by participating in industrial silicon futures hedging. Data shows that in the first half of 2025, the futures hedging income of 23 listed organic silicon companies reached 870 million yuan, effectively hedging the risk of price fluctuations.
Inventory Game: The Hidden Champion's "Reservoir" Strategy
Enterprises with flexible production capabilities demonstrate unique advantages in price fluctuations. A leading enterprise has compressed the DMC inventory turnover days from 15 days to 5 days through digital transformation, while utilizing the futures market for "virtual inventory" management. When the spot price is lower than the futures price, the enterprise increases spot procurement; When the spot price is at a premium, the inventory is released through the delivery warehouse.
This strategy has kept our gross profit margin stable at over 25%, "said the company's supply chain director. Through the three-dimensional regulation of" spot+futures+inventory ", the company successfully avoided the risk of a price crash in the second quarter of 2025, when DMC prices fell by 18% in two weeks, while the company's product prices were only reduced by 3%.
Demand differentiation: The high-end market is experiencing a simultaneous increase in both quantity and price
In contrast to the price fluctuations of general-purpose DMC, the high-end specialty silicone oil market is showing a trend of "both quantity and price rising". The price of high-temperature resistant silicone oil (working temperature up to 350 ℃) developed by a certain enterprise remains at a high level of 80000 yuan/ton, and orders have been scheduled until the second quarter of 2026. More noteworthy is that with the rise of emerging fields such as AI servers and humanoid robots, the demand for high thermal conductivity and high insulation silicon materials has surged, and the gross profit margin of related products is generally above 40%.
In the next three years, the organic silicon industry will form a dual track pattern of 'financialization of general products and high-end of special products'. Zhang Jianjun, Secretary General of the China Fluorosilicon Organic Materials Industry Association, predicts that enterprises with the ability to integrate the entire industry chain will take the initiative in the price game, while single link enterprises may face the risk of marginalization.
