On December 9, 2025, the Chinese silicone market reached a critical turning point. According to industry authoritative platform monitoring, as of December 8th, the mainstream quotation for domestic organic silicon DMC (dimethyl cyclic siloxane mixture) has risen to 13500-14000 yuan/ton, with leading manufacturers in East China quoting 14000 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of over 25% compared to early November. This price breakthrough marks the substantial implementation stage of the industry's "anti internal competition" action, and the expectation of industry chain profit repair has increased.


Industry collaboration to reduce production and increase prices, optimizing supply and demand patterns
Since November, the silicone industry has promoted supply side reform through three high-level meetings. On November 12th, Luxi Chemical led the first industry conference and proposed the goal of "reducing production by 30%+raising prices to 13500 yuan/ton"; On November 18th, the actual control personnel level meeting of Hesheng Silicon Industry and other enterprises refined the supervision mechanism; On December 4th, the third meeting further clarified the order of production reduction and pushed the price to exceed 13700 yuan/ton. According to data from Zhuochuang Information, around December, multiple enterprises in Shandong, East China and other regions have started reducing production line load, and the expectation of supply side contraction has been strengthened.


Enhanced demand side support and incremental contribution from emerging fields
On the demand side, downstream enterprises' wait-and-see sentiment has eased, and there is a phased release of replenishment demand. The new energy sector has become a core growth pole: by the third quarter of 2025, the country's photovoltaic installed capacity will increase by 48GW, and wind power will increase by 22GW, driving the application of organic silicon in battery packaging, cable insulation and other aspects; The increase in penetration rate of new energy vehicles is driving the growth of demand for sealants and lubricants. In addition, the dependence on high-performance organic silicon materials continues to increase in fields such as electronics and semiconductors, highlighting the premium ability of high-end products.


Profit recovery is expected, leading enterprises lead value reassessment
On the cost side, the price range of silicon metal fluctuates, supported by the rise in methanol prices, but the industry's average gross profit has rebounded from a loss state in early November to 1209 yuan/ton. Institutions predict that the theoretical profit of the organic silicon industry in the fourth quarter will increase from 168 yuan/ton in the third quarter to 437 yuan/ton, with top companies performing better based on their cost advantages. In terms of the capital market, although the stock prices of leading companies such as Hesheng Silicon Industry and Xingfa Group are under short-term pressure, the logic of mid - to long-term value reassessment remains unchanged. Hesheng Silicon Industry has achieved a single quarter turnaround in the third quarter, and its layout of the entire silicon carbide industry chain is expected to contribute new growth; Xingfa Group's revenue from new energy organic silicon products accounts for over 40%, with a gross profit margin 15-20 percentage points higher than traditional products.


Challenges and Prospects
Despite the recovery of industry prosperity, the market still has doubts about the intensity and sustainability of production cuts. Industry insiders pointed out that it is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of specific production reduction plans and the fluctuation of traditional off-season demand. However, with the acceleration of new energy construction during the 15th Five Year Plan period, the application space of organic silicon in photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage and other fields will continue to expand, and the long-term positive trend of the industry remains unchanged.